Portland's population of children under 5 has fallen by more than a third since 2010, according to new census data first reported by The Oregonian. The decline is reshaping the city's schools, with Portland Public Schools (PPS) now weighing the closure of up to 14 campuses.

The total number of children living in Portland has dropped 17% since 2017, falling below 100,000, The Oregonian reported. Young children under 5 now make up 3.9% of the city's population, down from 6.4% in 2010.

The rest of the metro area has not fallen as steeply. Excluding Portland, the under-5 population across the metro dropped a little more than 10% over the past five years, The Oregonian reported, a rate that matches national trends.

"There is a national trend toward lower birth rates, and Portland isn't exceptional among its peer cities in this regard," Ethan Sharygin, director of the Population Research Center at Portland State University, told The Oregonian. "Most U.S. cities are seeing rapid declines."

Sharygin said Portland's decline is similar to Austin, Minneapolis, Denver and Seattle, where young children make up between 4% and 5% of the population. Rising housing costs and stagnant wages are driving young families in big cities to have fewer children, according to Sharygin.

Federal data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis now ranks the Portland area as the 27th most expensive in the country out of nearly 400 areas surveyed.

Schools feel the squeeze

The enrollment numbers at PPS tell the story. District-wide enrollment is down 15% from its 2018 peak, to about 42,000 students. Elementary enrollment has fallen by a third since peaking in 2016.

PPS is losing about 1,000 students each year, Superintendent Kimberlee Armstrong said, according to KOIN. The district faces a projected $65 million budget deficit.

In October, PPS released two closure scenarios. Under Scenario A, 14 schools would close, including 13 elementary schools and Sellwood Middle School. Scenario B would close 11 schools, KGW reported. A third option would keep the current configuration.

The district's goal is elementary schools with at least 360 students and middle schools with at least 500, according to Associate Superintendent Margaret Calvert, as reported by The Oregonian in August. Those thresholds, set by Oregon's Quality Education Model, would allow two teachers per grade level and full-time arts and gym teachers at each campus.

Portland State demographers project PPS enrollment will keep falling, reaching about 36,000 students by 2039, The Oregonian reported in August. That would be 15% fewer than the current count.

Broader demographic shift

The child population decline extends beyond Portland city limits. PSU population forecasts released in August project Multnomah County will lose 17,474 children between ages 5 and 18 over the next decade, a 16% decline, Willamette Week reported.

In coverage published in August, Sharygin told Willamette Week that "the pandemic didn't affect the trajectory of birth rates much." Instead, the loss of school-aged children resulted from a "complete reversal of migration trends in response to the way that the city changed in the years afterward."

Some doubt PPS enrollment forecasts, The Oregonian noted, pointing out that the student population was growing as recently as 2018 and has rebounded from past declines.

Armstrong plans to issue her final closure recommendation Nov. 17. The school board expects to vote on the proposal in December, with changes taking effect for the 2027-28 school year if approved.