More than 825,000 Oregonians started college but never finished, and the state is losing an estimated $183 million a year in tuition as thousands of those would-be students enroll in online programs based elsewhere.

That's the headline finding of a new report from ReUp Education, a for-profit company that contracts with colleges to re-enroll adult learners, published Aug. 6 by OPB.

The report lands as Portland State University navigates a $35 million deficit and 36 faculty layoffs while simultaneously leading the state in adult enrollment.

Nearly half of PSU's student body — 48% in the 2024-25 school year — is 25 or older, the highest share among Oregon's public universities, according to the Higher Education Coordinating Commission. Statewide, about 45% of college students are adults.

Oregon's gap is twice the national average

Scott Lomas, ReUp's chief strategy officer, told OPB that Oregon's unfinished-degree population is 20 times the size of its annual high school graduating class. Nationally, the ratio is 10 to one.

"If we could keep a small portion, let alone a significant portion, of those students in the state, that would have a material impact on enrollment in Oregon," Lomas said.

Oregon adopted its adult attainment goal in 2018, aiming to graduate 300,000 adults with a degree, certificate or credential by 2030. That requires roughly 30,000 completions per year. In 2023-24, the actual number was 23,459, according to a HECC progress report. After four years, the state is 26,827 credentials short of its cumulative benchmark.

Donna Lewelling, who leads HECC's Office of Community Colleges and Workforce Development, said the state will likely have to extend the goal past 2030.

Equity gaps persist

The credential gap hits hardest along racial and income lines. Only 36% of Latinx/Hispanic adults in Oregon held a postsecondary credential in 2023, compared to 57% of white adults. Among low-income Oregonians, the figure was 37%, versus 58% for middle- and higher-income residents. Both gaps have barely narrowed since tracking began in 2019.

What PSU is doing — and cutting

PSU's budget crisis and its adult-learner mission are pulling in opposite directions. On July 22, the university announced 36 layoffs and the elimination of two departments to save $15.9 million. PSU currently spends about 17% of what comparable universities spend on marketing, according to Willamette Week. President Ann Cudd said July 22 the university would increase that investment, tying it to "achievable metrics that will deliver enrollment gains."

At the same time, PSU graduated its first cohort from a fully online Human Services degree program in June. The program was built for working adults already in the field and offers credit for prior learning.

Melissa Hill, a Portland-area mother of three who co-owns a dual-diagnosis outpatient program, finished a degree she'd left incomplete nearly two decades earlier at the University of Oregon. In a PSU announcement about the program's first graduates, Hill said the flexibility to complete coursework late at night was the only way she could manage it. "There are just too many demands currently on my time and schedule to be able to do anything without that kind of flexibility," she said.

Why it matters for Portland

HECC estimates 60% of projected new job openings in Oregon will require education beyond high school. With traditional-age enrollment expected to decline for years due to lower post-recession birth rates, adult learners represent the largest available pipeline.

The 2030 deadline is the only forward-looking milestone on the books. No new state funding or policy changes have been announced to close the gap.