Portland Public Schools will lose nearly 6,000 students over the next decade, according to a new enrollment forecast from Portland State University's Population Research Center that projects a 14% decline by the 2035-36 school year.

The district enrolled 42,622 students in fall 2025. The PSU forecast, reported by Willamette Week on Monday, Aug. 24, projects that number will fall to 36,763 in 10 years. That's already more than 6,000 below PPS's pre-pandemic 2019-20 enrollment.

The most striking finding: the high school enrollment peak has already passed. PPS high schools hit their highest enrollment in 20 years during 2022-23, with 14,389 students in grades 9-12. Between fall 2024 and fall 2025, high school enrollment dropped by more than 200 students.

The PSU report attributes the shift to smaller elementary and middle school cohorts that entered the system starting in 2013 and are now reaching high school age.

By 2040-41, high school enrollment is projected to fall to 11,462, down from 14,174 this coming fall.

District officials have said each of PPS's nine high schools needs at least 1,100 students to operate effectively. If the 2035-36 projections hold and students were distributed evenly, each campus would hold about 1,280. Grant High School, the district's largest, enrolled more than 2,000 students last year.

Meanwhile, construction began this summer on two of three high schools Portland voters approved for overhauls, with Ida B. Wells High School set to break ground in winter 2026-27.

What's driving the decline

Portland's total fertility rate has dropped from 1.89 in 2010 to 0.84 in 2024, well below the state average. Births within PPS boundaries fell 25.7% between 2010 and 2020, with an additional 9.4% decline by 2024.

Dr. Ethan Sharygin, director of PSU's Population Research Center, told Willamette Week on Aug. 18, in a story about the county-wide population forecast, that "the pandemic didn't affect the trajectory of birth rates much—they've been in long run secular decline."

The district's overall capture rate (the share of students living within PPS boundaries who actually attend PPS schools) has recovered from 74.4% in fall 2019 to an estimated 76.6% in 2025, but remains 5.6 percentage points below the district's 2015 high of 82.2%.

Consolidation talks ahead

In fall 2026, PPS officials will begin a school consolidation conversation looking to close up to 10 elementary and middle schools. Superintendent Dr. Kimberlee Armstrong has framed the effort around creating "well-resourced schools," and the PPS Board of Education has charged her with developing a long-term plan addressing declining enrollment, rising costs and sustainable use of facilities.

The pressure extends beyond elementary schools. Margaret Calvert, PPS assistant superintendent of school improvement and modernization, told the School Board on Aug. 5 that "86% of the district's declining enrollment it's seen thus far has come from the early grades." By 2031-32, only two of PPS's middle schools are projected to meet the 500-student enrollment threshold, down from 40% currently.

A 150-page report presented to the School Board on July 31 examined PPS's most recent enrollment-balancing effort and found 55% administrator turnover at affected schools in 2021-22, compared to 26% at other schools.

One modest offset: new affordable housing projects within PPS boundaries, scheduled for occupancy starting in 2026-27, are expected to house approximately 641 students across nearly 1,002 family-size units.

Specific consolidation meeting dates have not been announced; families can track the process at the district's rightsizing page on pps.net.